The trouble with “weather forecasting is that it’s right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.”

The paper is filled with news of the weather and the Patriots. A snowstorm is expected here by Saturday night. The amount of snow keeps changing, but it appears the Cape will get more than Boston. The Patriots play the Broncos Sunday in Denver. The Pats are 3 point favorites which is nothing given their horrendous record in Denver.

This morning was sunny but the gray sky is back but not dark enough to hide the light. It’s cold so I’m staying home and keeping warm and cozy. Last night around 6 I went to the store for a couple of things. The roads were just about empty. The parking lot at the market had 4 or 5 cars, usually I have to go around a couple of times until a spot opens. Inside, most of the stores were closed, but I did manage to find some goodies including shrimp fried rice, clam chowder and a couple of cod cakes. My larder is well filled.

When I was a kid, weather reporting was simple. We didn’t have warnings about when the storm might start and stop or how many inches to expect. My mother never raced off for groceries like bread or milk or water. We kids always had high hopes they’d be too much snow for school, but we wouldn’t officially find out until the next morning when the fire whistle blew.

Meteorologists now do the weather reporting on TV. They follow storms for days and tell us what might be coming. They even know how much snow we should expect. Gone are the markers, the white boards and the maps on erasable boards. Everything is computerized, no more guessing, no more fire whistles. Everyone now knows when to rush out to buy their water and bread. Tomorrow morning should begin the onslaught of frantic people facing a huge snow storm and bent on filling their fridge with water.

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6 Comments on “The trouble with “weather forecasting is that it’s right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.””

  1. Bob Says:

    When I started my aviation career in the 1970s the weather bureau forecasts were about 60% correct. Today they are closer to about 90%. They still can’t exactly tell you how much rain or snow will fall on your house but they can forecast that it will snow or rain and a range of precipitation. Unfortunately, they can’t predict which blocks in a neighborhood will be wiped by a tornado. They can predict that the atmospheric conditions are ripe for super cell thunderstorms that can produce tornados.

    The Pat’s game tomorrow night will probably get snow the only question is will it snow so much before the game starts to postpone because the field and the stands would be filed with the stuff. In November 2014 Buffalo NY had seven feet of snowfall and had to move the Bill’s game to Detroit. I don’t think this storm will drop seven feet of snow. But who knows these days between El Niño and global warming what might happen. 🙂

    Today in North Texas the sky was clear with highs in the upper 40s.

    • katry Says:

      Bob,
      I think the tornado warnings are such a scientific step forward. Countless lives have been saved.

      No snow at the Pat’s game. Colorado will be too warm, around 45˚ and with the possibility of rain. The snow game at Gillette was great fun to watch, but I’m glad that won’t be an issue.

      • Bob Says:

        I was just watching the news and the game that might be snowed out is the Charlotte whatever they are calked game. Men are shoveling out the snow now and the worst weather is not over yet.

      • katry Says:

        Bob,
        That area of the country is getting walloped by the snow and ice is covering even main roads.

        The storm is moving fairly fast. It was in Washington and is now moving up the coast. It will hit us late Saturday afternoon or early evening.

  2. olof1 Says:

    Today, Saturday, will be the last cold day in a while all weather sites says. Normally I would be filöled with joy but since I know winhter still is fairly young and both snow and cold will come back I feel it might as well stay cold. The short period of warmth will just give us hope of an early spring.

    Facebook will be filled with comments from people who obviously can’t remember anything correct if it is older than five minutes, saying that spring has sprung in the early february and when the cold weather comes back one day later say that they never can remember winter continue for so long 🙂 🙂 We can, if we’re unlucky have snow on the ground way in to May 🙂 🙂

    I can’t remember the meteorologists ever warning about so many things as they do now days. They have warnings about everything and they do it often too. People stiop believeing anythiung serious will happen if they are wrong twice. Here they have predicted how storms move very wrong a couple of times so no one believes them any more and naturally walks out into the storm and dies.

    I don’t think many goes to the food storms before a storm here, most people just think that they have what they need and that it all will be over fairly fast anyway, so far they’ve been right but that can change 🙂

    Have a grerat day!

    Christer.

    • katry Says:

      Christer,
      It is really cold here too. The wind makes it worse. Snow is coming!

      I know that the hope for spring is far greater than the reality of more winter, more cold. I guess that’s what people are hoping.

      I don’t think of them as wrong. They use all sorts of computer predictors which don’t always agree. Storms also have a tendency to go wherever they want, not the predicted route. I hate when they are wrong, but I understand why.

      I have been stuck in my house for a week or more a few times. The plow gets to my road when it can. My guy plows out my car and shovels a walkway for me in front and Gracie in the back. That plow guy should be busy tomorrow.


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